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AAA Projects Increase in Thanksgiving Travel

Submitted by Heather Hunter, November 17, 2011
2011 Thanksgiving Travel Forecast
Along with turkey and all the trimmings, parades and time with family, Thanksgiving also means holiday travel.

AAA forecasts 42.5 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a four percent increase from the 40.9 million people who traveled one year ago. The Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as Wednesday, Nov. 23 to Sunday, Nov. 27.

"AAA is projecting an increase in the number of Thanksgiving travelers this year, due mostly to pent-up demand from Americans who may have foregone holiday travel the last three years,” said Robert L. Darbelnet, AAA President and CEO. “As consumers weigh the fear of economic uncertainty and the desire to create lasting family memories this holiday, more Americans are expected to choose family and friends over frugality.”

While primary economic drivers continue to show improvement from one year ago, growth levels are not high enough to support a quick return to pre-recession levels of holiday travel. Rather a slow climb back is expected from 2008 which was a decade-low year for Thanksgiving travel with only 37.8 million Americans taking a trip. With volumes still below historical averages, pent-up demand will be a contributing factor in increased holiday travel, despite current economic conditions.

Total economic activity, measured as real gross domestic product, is expected to grow by just 1.3 percent for the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the fourth quarter of last year.The national unemployment rate is expected to be just fourth-tenths of a percentage point below last year’s level.

Personal income, real disposable income and consumer spending are all forecast above last year’s levels. However, the growth rates of these indicators are weaker than last year, and Americans are expressing uncertainty about the future by way of weaker consumer sentiment and consumer comfort survey results. In particular, household net worth is expected to be 5.6 percent lower in the fourth quarter of this year compared to last year.

AAA’s projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Global Insight. The Boston-based economic research and consulting firm teamed with AAA in 2009 to jointly analyze travel trends during the major holidays. The complete AAA / IHS Global Insight 2011 Thanksgiving Day Holiday Travel Forecast can be found at NewsRoom.AAA.com.

For ideas of things to do on Thanksgiving besides eat turkey, see our Thanksgiving calendar of events post.

About the Author

  • Image Heather Hunter Heather joined the AAA public relations team in June 2007, bringing more than 13 years of experience, including extensive work in both the travel and publishing industries....

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